Well NOAA came out with their Hurricane forecast for 2010 and issued an unbelieveable range of between 14 & 23 named storms. Are you kidding me? If it's 14 storms, that's basically an average season based on the last 15 years when we have been in an active hurricane cycle. If it's 23, then we really will have our hands full. But why the big range? That's like me saying tomorrow high will be between 75 & 90. 75 would be comfortable but 90 would be almost hot. 19-23 or 14-18 would be an appropriate range, but 14-23? That's like saying 10% chance for rain. Translation...I can never be wrong !
With these numbers, this will be a real opportunity to see if these forecasters really have any skill at long range. Unlike the unverifiable computer model predictions about Global Warming 50-100 years out, this hurricane forecast will be verifiable come November. My belief is the number of storms will be at the lower end(14), which would make it just an average season. Stay tuned.
Appears rain chances go up Sat-Sun as an upper low decends over us from the north.
9 comments:
"That's like me saying tomorrow high will be between 75 & 90. 75 would be comfortable but 90 would be almost hot. 19-23 or 14-18 would be an appropriate range, but 14-23? That's like saying 10% chance for rain. Translation...I can never be wrong !"
Well you just forecasted named hurricanes to be closer to 14 which is bascially the yearly average which just basic safe forecast to where if little less your ok or little more hurricanes you are still ok. That is kinda like forecasting that Utah will see snow again next winter. Come you know darn well that the forecast is long term and will be changed just like you and any other meteorologist change their weekly forecast as days go and the atmospheric condition change for that week.
My forecast is that we will have a well above normal average of named storms this year. 18
Yep I bet that big range is so they can say they nailed the forecast if the number lands between 14 and 23. I guess similar to they can never be wrong...but if something strange happens and we have another season like last year, they be adjusting their forecast downward in a heartbeat.
Just seems like NOAA is becoming an unreliable source...Seems it could also be said instead of never being wrong, is they don't know what they are doing as they have no clue how many storms to predict.
I've become convinced over the past few years that an accurate forecast cannot be made beyond 48 hours. (The exception being for Gustav - that sucker came across Cuba and made a bee-line for Cocodrie!) This is why I feel certain TV stations shouldn't use terms like "pinpoint" and "exact" in their forecasts.
Caveman...thanks for voicing your opinion. That's what we do here. Why must you keep doing the copy & paste? Remember you called Lake Charles for a hurricane landfall when the storm went up the east coast. I think Mike P gets it. Anything beyond 48 hours (especially in the summer) has little skill. But it's fun to see what others think will happen.
Bob, I was at St. Edward's yesterday at the year-end school awards ceremony for my two 7th graders. I just wanted you to know that the year Zabrecky award was presented very nicely and respectifully. Wish you could have been there.
Such a prestigious award and nice of you to give such a scholarship!!!
Unfortunately my two were not eligable as they are going to High School for 8th grade. I campaigned heavily for them to stay. I feel they could get just as good as an education there for 8th grade, but they are ready to move on. They even chose high school over going on vacation this summer and staying for 8th grade.
I see that Caveman and I are on the same page him forecasting 18NS and I 19NS.
General public is ignorant when it comes to NOAA and National Weather Service, most think the NWS gives the TV forecast. With the exception of a few mostly longtime local meteorologist folks they forecast circles around the usual TV meteorlogist and have much greater training and expertise. I visited an office before and you would be amazed how much stuff they have to do from local weather, hydro forecasting all the way up providing forecasts to pilots and briefing them as well plus much more. I think they are just a easy target because they ar federal employees.
Isn't the main story not so much how many named storms, although clearly the more there are the more likely that at least one would strike land, but rather what kind of pattern develops as far as tracks that the storms take? And wouldn't that have a lot to do with where the Bermuda high sets up?
I thought last year what "saved us" wasn't the tracks, but the storms didn't actually develop off of Africa at all...I may be wrong but I thought that's what happened last season...
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