The 2010 Hurricane Season begins Tuesday with grave warnings from all the "experts". Our unscientific survey indicates most of you (70%) agree with the "experts". NOAA's scientists say there is an 85% chance for an above normal/average season based on all the indicators they study and Dr. Gray's team agrees along with AccuWeather and WSI. There is one group out of Houston that disagrees calling for only 8 named storms. What should we be looking for? 1) whether the east coast trough lingers and gives a weakness to turn any storms northward BEFORE they can get into the Gulf. 2) Whether wind shear over the tropics really does vanish since El nino is gone. A TV station in South Florida did some research and found that NOAA & Dr. Gray have not been right very often (30%) since 2000. The Game begins Tuesday.
Our FOX 8 Hurricane Special WEATHERING THE STORM 2010 is Tuesday evening 6-7 PM.
Set your TIVO/DVR if you can't be home to watch it.
5 comments:
I bet if you go back and research that TV station you will find they are not much better with their hurricance forecasts. Again NOAA is making a long range forecast of course the accuracy is going to be low and if they did nail the forecast then everyone will just say they got lucky so it's a situation where NOAA can't win either way.
So basically, what's being said is that right now we don't know where the Bermuda High/east coast trough will be stationed or how strong those features will be? Is that right?
HundredOaks...you are correct. We don't know when the wind shear will leave either. Usually by late July-early August, the shear is gone and that's when the storms coming from Africa become the ones to watch. There's more we don't know than we do know.
From what I hear officials are worried that the potential for oil to go 10 miles inland from a hurricane making landfall is very real. Also understand the the relief wells be drilled may not work either if it comes to that.
Dear Bob Breck: I look at a hurricane tracking map several times each day- it shows colored hurricane shaped icons wherever there is weather being watched, and tropical waves. In the past few weeks there have been a lot of tropical waves- sometimes several at a time right behind each other. And they have all disappeared within a day or two. What is happening that is making them disappear so fast? Is it dust from the Sahara? Is it volcano ash? They are supposed to be forming into hurricanes nonstop, according to the forecasters, like 2005. Whatever is stopping the tropical waves, I hope it hangs around for a thousand more years.
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