Monday, June 14, 2010

Could it be Alex ?

Just 14 days into the 2010 Hurricane Season and we are watching a well defined swirl way out in the Atlantic. NHC lowered the chances that this system will develop, however, tonight's satellite pictures appear to show better organization. If it becomes Alex tomorrow, it will join Ana back in 1979 as the only named system to form that far east during the month of June. What happened back in 1979 with such an early start to the hurricane season? It ended with only 8 named storms, 5 of them becoming hurricanes. This year strong wind shear covers the Caribbean out into the tropical Atlantic so IF Alex forms, he shouldn't last very long.

Locally, our dry spell is ending as daily storms will return as an upper low moves slowly to our NW. More numerous showers should mean less hot temperatures and NWS has cancelled the heat advisory.

1 comment:

ONLYREAL said...

In 1979 a long track Major Hurricane Fredrick made landfall in Alabama; Category 1 Hurricane Bob made landfall in Grand Isle, LA.

I'm back from a mini-vacation from Pensacola, Florida and I am glad to report little if any oil.

As for the forecast... Upper level ridging that has dominated the region for the past couple of days is breaking down. This will result in more cloud cover and more afternoon thunderstorm activity in the afternoon. The general increase in cloud cover will result in slightly cooler high temperatures; but don't let that fool you as it will be hot. Expect hot afternoon temperatures and a daily chance of PM T-Storms through the weekend.

As for the disturbance in the central Atlantic, 92L. It continues to be well organized this evening with convection covering the low level circulation center and is likely already a Tropical Depression, however, the NHC has not recognized it one yet. 92L has about 12-24 hours left of semi-favorable upper conditions before encountering strong westerlies associated with a TUTT in the Caribbean which will tear it apart. I will continue to watch 92L as it could do something down the road in the Western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico but nothing is immanent.

-ONLYREAL