Not surprisingly Dr. Gray's team upped their number of named storms in their June update today. They now say 18 storms will form with 10 becoming hurricanes and 5 of those reaching Cat. 3 or stronger. One of the things I like about these Hurricane "Forecasts" is that we can verify them in 6 months, unlike the Global Warming Alarmist's predictions of 50-100 years out. I'll say this, if come November we end up with single digit storm numbers (only one group out of Houston says that), the credibility of these seasonal forecasts will be questioned as to their real value.
All Parishes are preaching from the same gospel(which they should) that calls for preparing NOW and every week before the heart of the season arrives. Stock up on supplies(a little at a time) and then have a plan on where you're going in case we need to evacuate. You can watch the FOX 8 hurricane preparedness special WEATHERING THE STORM 2010 again this Sunday at 12 noon.
3 comments:
I think those long range hurriance forecasts/predictions are more of a learning tool for NOAA and the others, they know more than likely they will be way off base but that is how they learn. Afterwards they will look at the data as to why they predicted as they did and then try to understand better why or why not their forecast was accurate. Pretty much anyone now days that are interested in weather and understand it to some degree can make pretty decent weekly forecast. Many forecasters even for that day's forecast put in a range of temps so they can say they forecasted correctly.
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I just wanted to say that my wife and I watched your special on FOX8 the other day and it was great.
Thanks for putting that together!
I thought I saw where they said that there was a 51 percent chance of a major hurricane making landfall somewhere on the Gulf coast and also a 51 percent chance of a major hurricane making landfall somewhere along the entire U.S. east coast (how do they classify the west coast of the Florida peninsula?) but a 76 percent of that happening somewhere along the entire U.S. Atlantic/Gulf coast.
It seems like that they could have stopped right that "entire U.S. coast" figure, seeing as how they don't really specify whether there is a higher chance of landfall along the eastern seaboard than along the Gulf coast or vice-versa.
Having said that, I still can't help but get the impression that some years are years in which storms seem to be gravitating toward, say, the North Carolina coastline, e.g. 1999, some years are years in which storms seem to be gravitating toward Texas, some years South Florida, e.g. 1994 and 1995 and certainly some years the central Gulf and so on.
Dr. Gray et al., esteemed scientists, of course, still to me seem to saying only that there will be a lot of storms and therefore the chance there will be several that will be severe is high and therefore the chance that a severe storm will make landfall somewhere on the U.S. coast is high.
That isn't really going out on much of a limb there.
OTOH somehow I suspect that almost no weather forecaster really wants to come out and say "yes, there's a higher chance that a storm will make landfall in one area as opposed to another" even if somehow that's how they believe that things will go for fear in inducing complacency in people.
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