Satellite loops show a stream of moisture from the Yucatan northward up into Louisiana tonight. There are 2 cloud swirls that bear watching. One is over the central Gulf due south of us but it appears there is too much wind shear right now. However, the little swirl the day before didn't get going until it approached the coast so we need to pay attention on Wednesday. If the winds pick up, you'll know something is developing close to us. NHC believes the other swirl moving off the Yucatan shows more promise for development. All computer models keep anything that might develop far south and head it towards the Mexican coast where Alex made landfall.
In the short term, we'll stay semi-wet on Wednesday with NWS keeping up a flood watch. Thursday should begin the drying trend that will last into the weekend. Fewer showers will mean hotter temperatures(mid 90s) for Fri-Mon.
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96L update:
Satellite imagery along with surface observations indicate that 96L is emerging off the coast of the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula. Surface observations show the tropical disturbance is located west of Progresso Mexico where winds shifted from the southwest to the south. CIMSS wind shear map shows that the system is tucked under an upper level anti-cyclone. Outflow is growing on the system's eastern and northern side but an upper level low off the Texas coastline is restricting outflow on the western side at this time. However, the upper level low is forecasted to move west into Texas tomorrow allowing for a more favorable upper level environment for 96L to become better organized once it is fully emerged into the western Gulf of Mexico. 96L will have about 2 days over water before a landfall near Brownsville, Texas Thursday PM/Friday AM. Given the large size of the system and the limited time I only see a 60% chance of development with a tropical storm at worst.
As for our weather... High rain chances will continue today with a gradual drop of rain chances as high pressure builds into the area. By this weekend rain chances will be fairly slim and high temperatures will be in the upper 90's.
-ONLYREAL
Scratch that last sentence... I meant "mid- 90's". lol
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