During Hurricane Season, we all know there are many models that NHC uses to guide their track forecast. Same goes for the NWS in making local forecasts. They use several models. FOX 8 contracts with Baron's Weather Services to use their priority VIPIR model along with one from WSI called their RPM model. VIPIR isn't always right, but it often is. Tonight it is bringing a cold front thru SE LA/MS about 6 hours sooner than the other models There will be some rain around on Saturday, but according to VIPIR, the bulk of it will be to our east by 10 AM allowing the parades to roll mostly dry. It will turn colder Saturday evening and sweaters and jackets will be needed for Endymion. The rest of Carnival (Sun-Tues) will be dry. Let's hope VIPIR is right again.
In the short term, Thursday will see some clouds with only the slightest chance for a stray shower. Rain chances will be slight better on Friday, but even then no worse than 30%. Highs will be in the 70s with brisk ESE winds (12-25).
8 comments:
I wouldn't put much faith in VIPIR considering all the major models are calling for a frontal passage between 3-9pm on Saturday. I can't believe you are hinging your forecast all on one new VIPIR run...
Anonymous, I don't think that is what Bob did. Did you actually read the post? Are you also aware that sometimes the major rain passes prior to the front actually passing through? And, I appreciate that Bob looks at many models and attempst to interpret them for the LOCAL situation rather than read the regional forecast from the National Weather Service.
Hey, don't knock viper.... it has been pretty reliable during the hurricane season! Besides, I believe what Bob does is review all of the models and then make an educated forecast based on his studies and synopsis of all of the models. Besides, Bob is the most reliable forecaster in the greater New Orleans area as far as I am concerned.
Bob is the most reliable weatherman around. He employs far too much common sense to "hinge his forecast on one new VIPIR run". His reliability and educational approach towards his viewers is what has kept me lurking around here for years.
I think Bob would be lost without VIPIR along with all the others. Many stations simply using broadcast mets because you don't have to pay them anything and the computers do all the work.
VIPIR is not a reliable model...I'll never forget 2 days before Katrina, it had Katrina making landfall in Tampa, Florida. I mean using one model that is going against the rest of them is meteorological suicide. Just saying, this could hurt Bob's rep really bad.
Bob isn't stupid he waits til 24 hrs prior to make a forecast then he has a pretty good shot of nailing.. the skill comes in making longer term forecast such as 5-7 days out..
Do the rest of you wonder who Anonymous really is? How dare he question my forecasting experience? I'm 63 years old having started in 1971 in Tampa, Fl. BEFORE numerical computer models even were around. We didn't have satellite loops or radar loops. Nope, we didn't just mouth the NWS forecast. We used our knowledge plus experience. VIPIR is just a tool. It was wrong initially with Katrina, but so were ALL the other NHC hurricane models. I try to get people to think, to give them an alternative to what NWS puts out. I think we need to send Anonymous back to namby-pamby land to get some self confidence so he just won't always criticize.
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