All it takes is for one computer model run to start the alarmists going. 2 models are hinting that we could have a tropical wave enter the Gulf by early next week and possibly slowly develop into our 1st named storm (Arlene) of 2011 heading towards the upper Mexican/lower Texas coast by Tuesday-Wednesday time frame. Right away the bloggers are "certain" a storm will form. There is a decent tropical wave moving thru the Eastern Caribbean tonight and perhaps this is what the models are picking up on. However, another strong upper ridge is forecast to form over the central plains and build over us. This would block anything that might form from moving northward and steer it westward away from us. But...that's another week away. Certainly it's WAY TOO EARLY to even talk about it as NHC is not. Bravo NHC.
Some much needed significant rainfall is drenching most of south Louisiana. It appears weak upper features are triggering these rains and we could see several more rounds of showers on Thursday before we dry out for the weekend.
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