Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly into the tropical disturbance over the south central Gulf on Thursday so we should finally know if we indeed have a center of circulation. As I mentioned last night, it is difficult to predict where "it" is going when you don't know where "it" is. I have never seen the spread/loops on the various computer models which tells me there is great uncertainty regarding whatever forms. All bring something towards the LA/MS coast and slow it down or stall it for 2-3 days. NWS now has upped their rainfall extimate to 8-10"+ for the South Shore by Monday. I should point out that the real heavy rain events in the past have NEVER been predicted ahead of time. That 8-10" could easily top 20"+ creating widespread flooding and limiting travel around the metro area. Slow moving tropical storms scare me, not for their winds, but for the sometimes incredible amounts of rain they generate (Allison 30-40"+). Right now there is enough wind shear over the northern Gulf to prevent any major system from forming, but that could change by Sunday and Monday. Stay tuned and be prepared for a real soggy 4-5 days.
In the short term, the marsh fire is likely to still be a problem for one more day until the real rains arrive on Friday. Go Saints on FOX 8 Thursday at 7 PM.
4 comments:
Do you think this could be a cyclone by days end?
will the wind shear still be affecting this system after today?
Does this storm have the time to become somthing real serious?
Thanks for the update Bob.
Looks like some of the models want to make this thing into a substantial hurricane by Mon. Hope the shear holds up and it drifts over to Texas to give them some rain.
Whats going on with Katia?
This is the swirl I was talking about the other day, Bob! You done good teaching your viewers how to read the Gulf satellite. Now, how do we make it go away?
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