Wow, I have never seen such confusion on future motion by all the models tonight. There is some agreement on 1) slow motion and 2) slow strengthening, but loops and double loops...oh my! Add in tonight's satellite loops show a flair up of storms way down in the Gulf far removed from where NHC says TD 13 is. Wind shear still covers the northern Gulf, but for how long? This is much different than tracking a Katrina, a Gustav, a Rita or Ike. Those were well formed and long tracked. This system is ill defined and has no history forming just to our south. Before everyone freaks out, let's watch it for another day. Just be ready to get home and off the roads if the tropical rain bands arrive and start flooding our streets. If you haven't gotten all your supplies, do it early on Friday before things get worse. I'll update during the day Friday.
15 comments:
Bob, I will make a prediction. I have been watching the Gulf of Mexico - AVN Color Infrared Loop for the past day. The center of circulation is going to be be farther south and center of the Gulf. (Not where the NHC has it now) The motion has been moving NNW and it is starting to turn N to NNE and by tomorrow evening sending this "thing" more east of the projected path. I will bet it will make landfall somewhere east of the current plot. Too early to predict but I will say LA/MS maybe even Ala. Let's hope I am correct. There still is not a lot of concentrated circulation...still very disorganized system. However, this could be due to the current shear that will end tomorrow. If that is the case, it will intensify but it is not going where they say it is going now. I can bet you on that one. Anyone interested check it out: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html
watched you mention the weather further south in gulf on news tonite... I notice when I pan out and animate the maps, there seems to be a large circulation from Fla around to mexico..drawing this stuff up from further south....... Possible BIG SYSTEM BREWING ???
pLEASE TELL ME i AM WRONG bOB !!!
Bob, I trust you and your weather team over all others! If you get worried, that's when I worry, but if you say, "eh..." I relax.
My question is, if things stay on track as they are now, should people in the path board up windows? Usually I look to my neighbors but no one seems to know what to do. Last bight one model had it tracking right over my parish moving rather slowly, and if it reacher tropical storm or minimal hurricane strength, I'd like to know if boarding up windows would be necessary.
Also, someone on a popular local web forum mention that the center of circulation looked to be possibly relocating to the south, which would mean throw put all models, and that it would probably go east of us and not be a threat. I try to take what those guys say wth a gain of salt until anything official comes out, but I'm curious if that's ccorrect- not to give anyone a false sense of security, but this seems almost in line with you blog post, or was he just probably speculating?
Could make it to weak hurricane status and one model has it making landfall and going Bach into gulf near Florida and making landfall again!
Thanks Bob...
Your description (re: the high pressure north of us) on last night's news was very informative. You're the ONLY weather person that consistently breaks things down and gives the full picture of the "why".
Hey Bob, this your next door neighbor, I'm due to fly back to Honduras tomorrow and was wondering what the chances are of getting out of here tomorrow early a.m
Sheer weaking storm is parked right on top the Loop current may get intersting!
Tropical Storm Lee vs. Hurricane Cindy 2005??
I think it is going to rain.
I just spent $130.00 on groceries.. on stuff I would never eat if the electricity would not go out. I haven't eaten a ham sandwich or tuna since Katrina. I don't want it to come to Covington but now since I have invested money in Lee.... What can I do?
Bob was this blog your idea? Or was this someone else's idea and they just put your name on it? Just wondering because there are several questions from conserned people asking you about this storm and you never seem to reply.. So how about you get a couple of met's to keep an eye on it for you,to keep people informed. You have about 5 met's working for you, there's no excuse.
This is when I stick my head in the sand and let Bob take over. Please tell me Katia has not changed course and going to Florida that could enter the Gulf later on. Please tell me this is not what I see.
Neighbor...the problem with flying out on Saturday will be IF you plane can fly in. If TS Lee doesn't move much, airport should be open until the main rain bands arrive late Saturday.
Bob, I will make another prediction on Lee. I think it will be downgraded overnight to a Tropical Depression. It has lost its compact organization it had earlier today. The wind gusts are only 40 mph near the center now and the deep red convection we saw earlier today is gone. There is no way this storm is going to generate 75mph wind gusts as being predicted for the northshore Saturday night. Someone is at NHC is trying to CTA. I leave it for the readers to figure that out. Unless they are predicting something I am not seeing...I don't see this as a tropical storm at landfall.
Bob - As of noon today - Saturday - tides in Oak Harbor have already reached 3 feet above normal due to TS Lee. How much more tidal increase should we expect?
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