The Hurricane Hunters found a closed circulation over the EXTREME southern Gulf this afternoon and NHC started issuing advisories on TD # 10. Computer models, including VIPIR, take this system SLOWLY to the WNW eventually making landfall over Mexico, but not until Monday !!! Luckily for us we have a fairly deep trough that should bring down high pressure over the SE blocking any movement of this tropical system our way. NHC is saying some spots in Mexico could see as much as 25 inches of rain ! Yikes! Reminds my of Danny that sat over Mobile Bay and dumped 43” in 3 days or Allison that gave parts of Houston 40+”. We don’t want any of that. Fortunately, computer models 10-14 days out are not forecasting any long track hurricanes coming from Africa across the Atlantic. 2 weeks gets us almost to October and I’m feeling more confident that we will not see a threat from a major hurricane (where we need to evacuate) this year. Doesn’t mean a storm won’t threaten in October, it’s just that history becomes our friend the deeper we get into the Fall. Stay tuned!
In the short term, a weak cool front should push thru after dark on Friday and bring us some drier air for Saturday & early Sunday.
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