Satellite loops clearly show an organizing tropical system approaching the Yucatan Channel tonight. This disturbance will enter the Gulf on Thursday and will likely become our 11th named storm (Karen). Most computer models (including VIPIR) turn Karen east of the mouth of the river on Friday keeping us on the drier side. IF Karen comes closer, we could see some tropical squalls late Friday into Saturday…however, the heaviest rains & strongest winds will be east of New Orleans. The strongest cold front of this Fall will arrive on Sunday sweeping away all the moisture bringing cooler and much drier air for the start of next week. Our key day here will be on Friday. By then we’ll know IF Karen will make the turn to the east away from us. Regardless, she won’t be a major storm due to increasing wind shear over the northern Gulf. Stay tuned!
In the short term, Thursday & Friday will see only a few showers with temps staying summer-like.
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