Why can’t we just have a tropical system move along, come in and get out ASAP? But noooo, they have to stall (Isaac) or loop (Juan) or do something none of the computer models predict. So I caution everyone tonight…expect the unexpected. Both NHC & VIPIR are forecasting Karen to remain a strong Tropical Storm (Winds near 70) as she approaches the mouth of the River on Sat. AM but then make a hard turn to the NE away from N.O. and towards the AL/FL beaches on Sunday. However, the RPM model waddles Karen down over the Gulf drifting her slowly to the NW & weakening. She slowly works her way to our coast early on Sunday as a depression and then is swept away by a strong cold front Sunday PM. You see the folly of coming out with impacts regarding rain, winds, tides & storm surge when the system could do about anything. Let’s not get carried away and raise everybody’s anxiety levels if we don’t need to, and tonight we don’t need to. We’ll have several more model runs on Friday to try to figure our Karen’s future. Stay tuned!
In the short term, Friday could turn out to be a fairly dry day, but still almost hot. The cooler air arrives for next week!
2 comments:
Bob, worst case scenerio, would this be like Hurricane Lee?
Bob - Why don't I remember Hurricane Ida in 2009? This storm seems to have taken a very similar track to Tropical Storm Karen. Is it just me or are they similar???
Gilbert Estrada
Metairie, LA
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