Severe Outbreak Coming...

So far in 2014 the nation as a whole is way behind normal/average regarding the number of tornadoes.  The lingering brutal winter chill might have something to do with that?  Duh!  That's about to change as deep Gulf moisture is flowing northward into a strong SW flow over the central plains.  A powerful upper disturbance will enter the picture from the southern Rockies creating a split in the jet somewhere across Missouri & Arkansas on Thursday.   SPC has placed those states under a "moderate risk" for severe storms and all indications point in that direction.   As the upper energy lifts to the NE, it'll drag a cold front our way but I feel the heaviest storms should remain well north of Lake P.   Most showers end by noon on Friday with slightly cooler air filtering in fro Saturday.  The front retreats northward on Sunday bringing us the potential for heavy (3-5"+) rainfall and severe storms here Sunday PM.   Pay attention the next 3-4 days as we may have several threats for T-Storms with the greatest threat coming on Sunday.