As we approach the weekend, folks always want to know "will it rain?" Of course if you have lived here for years you know it rains almost everyday somewhere along the Gulf coast. One day the storms may be over us, the next day Mobile, the next back over Lafayette etc. Usually the location is a function of upper air disturbances or a tropical wave flowing around the Bermuda High. This summer so far has not seen much of the Bermuda High. Instead we have seen a persistent east coast trough that brings weak frontal boundaries down to us. Computer models are having a difficult time dealing with these weak systems as earlier today they called for 3-5"+ rainfall for SE Louisiana but tonight have back off to less than .50". We will see some showers return for the next 2-3 days but I'm not expecting the excessive amounts earlier forecasted. As always, we'll need to monitor these boundaries in case they stall over us creating a 'training effect" producing heavy rainfall. That appears unlikely.
Strong NW shear covers the Gulf & Caribbean. No tropical formation is expected with the current hostile environment.
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