Fay in Gulf? Not where you think

Last night & today we have focused on a circulation that is moving to the west across south central Florida.  This system will move out into the Gulf on Saturday, but we don't expect any development as there are very strong NE winds (windshear) across the NE Gulf that should not allow development.  As this systems head farther to the west by Monday, it reaches the western Gulf where there should be less shear.  In fact, it could slow down and meander over the western Gulf for a day or two (Mon-Tues).  That is where we could see some development.   plenty of time to watch that.   This afternoon's satellite loops indicate a clustering of clouds/storms down over the Bay of Campeche. NHC tonight is saying there is a slight chance (10%) that this area could develop since pressures are low.   Could that be where Fay forms?   If so, she would pose no threat to us.   The wild card in all of this is an approaching cold front that will stall some where near us.  That could give us the potential for some "training Storms" on Saturday.   I will be keeping up with all of this over the weekend, but am not nervous since the upper shear remains very strong.  Stay tuned!