No Fay Today...

Mid day satellite loops show a well defined circulation over the eastern Gulf moving westward.  Despite the rotation of low pressure, there are currently zero showers around it.  The reason appears to be very strong wind shear that covers the eastern half of the Gulf.   IF this system is to become Fay, it won't do so (if it ever does) until in gets over the western Gulf where wind shear will be much less.   None of the computer models do that and just bring the disturbance westward into Texas with some welcomed rainfall.   In fact, the recent widespread rains over south Texas have taken that part of that state out of extreme drought conditions.    The rains that are soaking the South Shore this afternoon are not connected to the system over the eastern Gulf.   A cold front has staggered into SE LA/MS and appears to be the focus for developing showers coupled with daytime heating.  This front is expected to slowly dissipate, but it will be the reason that our rain chances will stay high through Monday & Tuesday.   Computer models are predicting a big dip in the jet stream over the eastern states in 7-10 days.  That will finally bring us our real first taste of Autumn temperatures.  All the other systems out in the Tropics will not be a threat for the Gulf.   Stay tuned!