Models Continue to Struggle...

What I have seen today is the little or no motion for Invest 99-L.  NHC tonight has increased their chances of development from 40% to 50% based on what appears to be a weak circulation just off the north central coast of Cuba.  But I’m not seeing any westward motion and NHC dropped their westward motion of 10 mph from their discussion.  However, new model runs are again suggesting development over the eastern Gulf on Monday & Tuesday.  The Euro (which has been totally wrong all week) is very aggressive at developing a storm or hurricane and bringing it towards Louisiana.  Yea I know what August 29^th is but why should we believe the Euro?   The GFS model is less aggressive, but it too brings a low into the eastern Gulf.   As I have always preached, until we have a defined center to track, computer models (spaghetti plots) are not very helpful since they all have different initialization points.   What we do know is very little tonight.  Could this stop in motion mean this system could change course and head back to the NE away from the Gulf?  Maybe.   Will the westward motion resume on Sunday bringing this disturbance into the Gulf on Monday?   Possibly, however, with such slow motion, we would have plenty of notice to get ready IF the threat nears us.   What we don’t want is for a slowly developing system to get stuck over the central or eastern Gulf allowing it time to strengthen.   As I mentioned in my previous blog, the MJO is in the unfavorable (sinking air) phase right now, but it will shift to a more favorable phase by early next week.   I guess if we used the flag system like they use at the beaches for rip currents,  I’d say the YELLOW (caution)flags are out.  We don’t need the red flags yet.  Stayed tuned!