Beware the Western Gulf...

Satellite loops are indicating the remains of Harvey are getting better organized as he is moving back into the southern Gulf just west of Merida, Mexico.  NHC should quickly upgrade Harvey back to a Tropical Storm and then to a Hurricane before landfall along the lower Texas coast.  As I mentioned last night, it’s what happens to Harvey AFTER landfall that has my attention.   Models are again showing a slow moving tropical system with the American model (GFS) taking Harvey north of Houston into western Louisiana early next week.  The European brings Harvey back into the Gulf near Galveston and heads it our way skirting the coast.  Either solution is not good as tropical, flooding rains will be the major story with this system.  Computer guidance is forecasting 20-30” along the Texas coast eastward into Houston.   If the storm crawls our way next week, we could see totals that will easily overwhelm our pumping capacity.   I’m waiting for NHC to start sending up the red flags on Harvey as the MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is moving into the favorable (rising air) phase.  Along with Harvey, Irma is likely to form just east of Florida and threaten the Carolinas.  Whatever, we need to focus on Harvey for the next 3-5 days as he is likely to become a strong hurricane over the western Gulf.  He will not impact the Saint’s preseason game on Saturday night, but could bring some heavy rains as soon as Sunday.  Our crunch time appears to be Monday-Wednesday IF the models are correct.  Stay tuned!