Beware The Track...

When I was on TV, I always liked to begin by telling you what we know and what we don’t know.  I often find it amusing watching various weathercasters showing you the NHC’s (National Hurricane Center) forecast track and error cone like they were written in stone, take it to the bank, this is what’s gonna happen.   In reality, here’s what we do know.    Tropical Storms & Hurricanes have sometimes veered OUTSIDE the error cone.  There is uncertainty that is rarely mentioned during the broadcast.   We know that computer models do NOT handle small & weaker storms very well.  Models are way more accurate with larger & intense storms.   In addition, slower moving storms typically result in higher uncertainty.  Currently Harvey is essentially stationary with NHC saying there is a NW drift at 2 mph.  Satellite pictures are indicating Harvey is becoming better organized, however, he appears not to be increasing in intensity.  T-Storms are having difficulty  organizing around the center, but that should change with time.  The issue for us is still the same.  IF models are correct and  Harvey moves into the Texas coast SW of Galveston and NE of Corpus Christi, impacts on SE LA/MS will be minimal.  But what happens AFTER Harvey moves inland?   Most models keep it stalled for several days.  Some turn him back to the SW and head him into Mexico.  None take it to the NE into Louisiana.   Why not?   There will be an old frontal boundary draped across the Deep South & storms often head to weaknesses in the Atmosphere.  That’s something to watch.   We’ll know far more about Harvey when he strengthens and starts to move.  Until then, I suggest you beware the track because it’s likely to change a lot over the next 3-5 days.  Stay tuned!