Harvey Not Dead Yet...

At midday, the remains of Harvey are well inland NW of Victoria and radar appears to indicate he is beginning to make the well-advertised loop that the models have forecasted for days.  Even though most models do not bring Harvey eastward into Louisiana, I recall what happened to Allison back in 1979.  She headed up through Houston moving to the north before making a large loop back south into the Gulf and then NE into SE Louisiana.  NHC doesn’t call for Harvey to do that, however, when a storm lingers without making much forward progress, that should keep everyone vigilant.  Nothing will happen quickly as Harvey remains under weak steering.   Even if Harvey did loop back out into the Gulf and head our way, he would have a difficult time regaining strength over the cooler waters created by the upwelling of such a strong storm.   I don’t worry about a wind storm, rather I worry about a slow moving rain event.  That worry is not very great right now and perhaps it will never be.  But let’s not write Harvey off just yet.  This continues to be a Texas storm and the ongoing reports into next week will be the extreme flooding.

 

The visible Satellite loop shows a weak circulation over central Florida with a flair up of storms in the Gulf and on their east coast.  This might develop into Irma during the next 2-3 days but it will hug the Carolina coast before turning out to sea.   In the short term, our issue will be the usual August heat.  Go Saints!  Stay tuned!