Saturday, August 26, 2017

No Loop Harvey...

What appeared to be a movement to the west this afternoon turns out to be a drift to the NE tonight.  Regardless, the movement is essentially stationary tonight and that’s good news for us.   As long as there is no motion to the south, it becomes VERY LIKELY that Harvey will not return to the Gulf and regain strength. NHC believes he will begin a slow southward drift the next 1-2 days, but not emerge back over the Gulf.   He’s still a prolific rainmaker and will cripple parts of Texas for the next 3-5 days.  Unless something foolish happens, ( all models keep Harvey well west & north of us) the flooding rains from Harvey should not come here.   I feel for all the broadcasters that have to cover Harvey.  I dreaded the slow moving storms since, after a few days your brain goes dead!  Be it lack of sleep, hours on camera and little good food (loved cold pizza!), you just don’t function as sharp.  I believe kudos should go to the NHC (National Hurricane Center) & NWS (National Weather Service) for providing excellent guidance minimizing loss of life.   Remember, this was a Cat. 4 at landfall.  Bravo!

 

Radar returns are hinting that low pressure is developing over north central Florida and NHC says a tropical or sub-tropical system (Irma) could form early next week.   In addition, long range models project a wave over Africa will develop into a named storm (Jose) in the 7-10 day time frame.  We still have 5-6 weeks to pay attention, but there is nothing after Harvey that will give us a threat during the next 10 days.  Hurry up October!

1 comment:

ME said...

Bob, Does it seem that some dry air is infiltrating the west side and that MAY help slow the production of the deep convection? Just looking at couple of sites that this MAY be happening...Just picking your brain for comment..Thanks