Models Were Right...

Looking back on this saga of Harvey and I find that the computer models nailed Harvey’s track & rainfall BEFORE he made landfall in Texas.   Many of us doubted the 50+” of rain the models said would fall & it’s obvious many folks around Houston didn’t believe it either.  How could they?  It had never happened before.  The models said Harvey would stall and make a loop back into the Gulf taking 3-4 days to do it.  Well, it wasn’t exactly a loop but the time frame pretty much checked out.  However, the models have been clueless on Harvey’s movement today.  After coming back over the Gulf, he was supposed to head to the NE making landfall near Beaumont, then near Lake Charles, then back to near Beaumont.  Satellite loops tonight show the center has moved almost straight to the east and is south of Lake Charles.  I’m sure NHC will have to adjust the track farther to the east on their next update.  Since the center will come closer to us, we’re likely to see some stronger (20-30+ mph) wind gusts later tonight, but it appears only a few brief squalls remain on the eastern side of this storm.  That’s because Harvey’s circulation has entrained much drier air around it leaving the center exposed (no storms).  I only saw a couple  patches of blue skies today, but I expect we’ll see many more sunny breaks on Wednesday.  I’m encouraged to see our barometer remaining steady or slightly higher as Harvey gets nearer.  That tell me he is not gaining strength despite being over the Gulf waters for over 24 hours.  The upper shear is just too strong for this system to recover…thank goodness!   Now if Harvey can just start moving back to the north and get inland, we’ll all feel much better.  The rain in Houston is finally over, but as we know, their nightmare will continue for many weeks & months.

 

So while Harvey has gathered our full attention for the past 5 days, the calendar keeps us moving closer to September & the peak of the hurricane season on the 10^th.   Irma did not form off the Carolina coast (too much shear), however, there is a strong system that NHC gives a 90% chance for development during the next 2-3 days.  Models take this system across the Atlantic and, RIGHT NOW,  recurve it along the east coast and not getting into the Gulf.   That would be good for us.  However, some long range models have hinted at another Gulf disturbance developing sometime next week.  I’m not buying into that just yet since 1) there is nothing there , 2) the western Gulf waters are much cooler due to upwelling from Harvey and 3) there is another upper low over the Yucatan moving westward creating hostile conditions for at least 3-5 days.   Let’s see what tomorrow’s models do.  If they continue to show possible development, then we’ll need to pay attention again.  One thing all of the Gulf coast (Corpus to Fort Myers) doesn’t need right now is more rain.