How Do You Solve a Problem Like Maria?

Last night’s blog mentioned Maria was likely to become a major hurricane.  She has, and oh so much more.  Her eye is moving right over Dominica with peak winds now at 160 (Cat. 5) mph.  Her projected path will take her right over St. Croix, the American Virgin Islands & then Puerto Rico.  Maria is a much smaller hurricane compared to Irma, but she is almost as intense and will likely make many areas uninhabitable for weeks & months.  This is a grim situation for Puerto Rico as it appears the island will bear the full impact of Maria.   Future tracks from all computer models keep Maria well east of Florida, but she might threaten the Carolinas next week.   As if forecasters don’t have enough on their plates, Hurricane Jose has stalled about 150 miles east of the Carolina Outer Banks.   That is complicating the future path of Maria as the 2 systems get closer and closer late this week .   Will they do the “Fijiwara effect” and rotate around one another?   Will the much stronger Maria absorb the weaker Jose?   Lots of uncertainty in the long term while the short term is pretty much locked in place.  Fortunately for us, these systems will stay out of the Gulf.

 

I’m encouraged by the longer range models that are indicating our next real cold front will arrive BEFORE the end of the month.  In fact, it appears a deep east coast trough will bring down 2 fronts to us that should almost end our threat for any MAJOR hurricanes for this year.   After Jose & Maria, models are hinting that a tropical system could develop over the western Caribbean in the 7-10 day time frame.  Fortunately for us, the upper trough will be approaching and that should steer any system well to our east.   The “Fat Lady” is still at her house and probably won’t leave for the theater until we’re sure those fronts are coming.   For now, the Gulf is quiet and we should direct our thoughts & prayers to those in Maria’s path.   I fear this will be another destructive & deadly storm.