Which Disaster is Worse?

As Cat. 5 Hurricane Maria sets her sights on St. Croix & Puerto Rico, I’m  watching the network coverage of today’s earthquake in Mexico City.   Maria’s winds are now up to 175 mph and she will without a doubt crush many structures in her path.  However, with modern technology, everyone knows she is coming.  Hopefully because of that, loss of life will be minimal.  On the other hand, the Mexican earthquake struck without warning.  Folks had zero time to prepare.  It hit, buildings collapsed & people died.  It may not be fair to compare what is worse…Tornado, hurricane, earthquake, volcanic eruption, but I can tell you I’d rather know which threat is coming since more lead time to prepare usually means the less loss of life.  Maria now is approaching the intensity of Irma meaning even the strongest of buildings will suffer damage.  TWC (The Weather Channel) had an excellent graphic that pointed out a Cat. 2 hurricane has 10 times the wind force of a Cat. 1… A Cat. 3 has 50 times the wind force than a Cat. 1… A Cat. 4 has 250 times the force than a Cat. 1,,,and finally a Cat. 5 has  500 times the wind force than a Cat. 1.  The increase in wind force is an exponential function of wind speed.     St. Croix (1,100’+) & Puerto Rico (4,300’+) both have some elevation that will allow folks to escape the 6-10 feet of storm surge.  However, there will be no escape from the wind.   We will know the full impact in the morning as video will likely show the same kind of destruction we saw in Barbuda, St. Thomas & St. Johns etc.  with Irma.   This will be a scary night for the 50K+ on St. Croix & the 3.4 million on Puerto Rico. 

 

So where does Maria go down the road?  ALL computer models turn the storm AWAY from Florida (hear that Carol?), however, there are several that turn her back towards the Outer Banks & NYC, Boston next week.   Jose has slowed down/stalled and could interact with Maria convoluting the forecast for next week.   No model brings any storm into the Gulf for the next 7-10 days.  Yesterday’s models indicated several cold fronts might be coming for NEXT weekend, but today’s runs have backed off and it might be the 1^st or 2^nd week in October before our next real front arrives.   I am not comfortable saying our hurricane season is over until those fronts start coming and we cool down the water temps in the Gulf.  David pointed out today’s 91 make it 4 straight days 90+, hardly a way to cool down the Gulf.  Stay tuned.