Major Hurricane Risk is Really Low...

Despite what many believe to be different, David showed a graphic on his early programs that indicated during the past 168 years (1851-2017) there have been only 19 storms hit Louisiana directly in August.  8 of them were Tropical Storms, 11 Hurricanes with 7 becoming Major (Cat. 3+).   Most of us remember Camille (69) and Katrina (05), very bad storms.   But to think during those 168 Augusts, only 7 saw major hurricane impacts.  To me that is comforting, yet we still know it can happen in any given year.   NHC is talking about an active east Pacific, but is saying nothing about the Atlantic.    Satellite loops tonight indicate several clusters of storms moving westward along the ITCZ (Inter Tropical Convergence Zone) far out in the Atlantic, but since the computer models are not indicating development, NHC isn’t going to begin talking about them.   There is quite a shear zone across the Gulf of Mexico extending from west of the Yucatan northeastward into the Southeast states of Florida, Georgia & the Carolinas.  West of this trough, the air is much drier with 50 dew points down to San Antonio.  East of this trough, bands of heavy showers keep soaking the beaches of Florida northward.   As long as this trough doesn’t shift westward, our daily rain chances should stay below normal for Thursday & Friday.  I don’t see any return of the “extreme” (95-98) heat during the next 7 days.  

 

There are some signs of Fall showing up over north Minnesota, Wisconsin and Upper Michigan where temps will dip into the 40s overnight.   That kind of air is about 2 ½ months away (mid-October) from coming down to us.   Stay tuned!