September Ready to Rumble?

In another 3 hours August 2018 will be history…and good riddance!  Although it appears the 1^st week of September will continue the very wet pattern we’ve seen for the past week.   It’s a very complex weather situation over the Tropics tonight, so let’s begin off of Africa and work back to the west.   Based on satellite images, Tropical Storm Florence will be named just west of the Cape Verde Islands.  Most models develop her into a hurricane, but keep her track way out to sea.   The wave that passed Puerto Rico yesterday is over Hispaniola showing no signs of organization, but NHC has increased the odds of formation to 20% once this wave reaches the Gulf late on Monday.  Right now, a well-defined upper low east of Florida  is producing strong wind shear and that should restrict any development for the next 2-3 days.  The Euro is the only model that hints something might happen Tuesday into Wednesday over the northern Gulf and that is why NHC has increased the probability.   AS the local NWS office said,..”it is early September and we’ll need to monitor” and so we will.  Closer to home, the Gulf is one stirred up bowl of gumbo.  We have a weak upper low south of the Louisiana coast that should drift slowly westward keeping us on the “wet side” through the weekend. Although there are many clusters of T-Storms, they have no signs of organization.   One benefit, the above normal clouds and showers will keep us less hot.   Labor Day may see fewer showers & more sunshine as the upper low pulls westward before that next wave brings us another round of storms for Tuesday & Wednesday.  All signs point to an active 3-4 weeks with 4-5+ named storms in September.  If they all stay away from us, if they all curve east of the U.S., if they never strike land…too many ifs!  Unfortunately, the long range models show no cold fronts coming during the 1^st 2 weeks of September, perhaps longer.  We are far from being done with the Summer heat and any hurricane threats.  The countdown to October has begun!  Stay tuned!