Tropics About to Come Alive...

With tomorrow being the 13^th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina, it’s nice to say we have zero tropical threats in the next 3-5 days and August should end with no named storms.   HOWEVER, it appears the MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) will transition to the favorable (rising air) phase beginning late next week and one model (European) is developing a strong tropical system along the northern Gulf Coast.   NHC has started issuing statements regarding a wave that’ll move off of Africa tomorrow and most models do develop that into a Tropical Storm or Hurricane way out over the central Atlantic.   But the Euro is also developing a wave way out in front of that.  That wave  will approach the windward Islands  and not develop until it nears south Florida late this weekend and then strengthens more once it moves over the very warm (90-ish) waters of the Gulf.  Will that happen?   It’s just one model, but the Euro was the most accurate with Hurricane Lane last week.  It has my attention since we’ll be coming off the Labor Day weekend where most folks will be at the beach or watching football and not following the weather like I do.   The favorable MJO will be the switch that is flipped (we already have super warm waters & decreased shear) and we could be tracking  Florence, Gordon and Helene all at once beginning this weekend into next week.  If you are planning a trip out of town the next 1-2 weeks, make sure you keep up on what is happening back here.  I don’t want you saying…”where did that come from?”   We are not going on high alert just yet, but I am raising the yellow flags of caution beginning late this weekend into early next week.   Let’s see if the Euro model has picked up on something the other models haven’t.  Also, let’s see if NHC starts talking about the potential development of the first wave.  So far they haven’t.

 

Locally, the flow around the Bermuda High has enhanced the layers of deep tropical moisture so our daily shower chances will remain above normal(60-70%+) for the rest of this week.  That results in less hot high temperatures. Not much else to mention except  we only have 3 more days of August!!!  Stay tuned!