As the remains of Gordon lumber over Arkansas, Computer models are cranking up the tropical Atlantic for the next 7-10 days. Hurricane Florence appears to be the main threat as both the Euro & GFS models are bringing her to the east coast for early next week as a major hurricane. The Euro aims for the North Carolina coast 1st moving northward up the Delmarva curving south of NYC. The GFS brings her very close to NYC showing a loop back around to off Cape Hatteras. If you have any travel plans to the east coast or Northeast next week, you’ll need to pay close attention to Florence. She has the potential to cause great damage over a large area depending on her track. Following her will be Helene and Isaac and perhaps Joyce. Way too soon to speculate on future tracks since they haven’t formed yet. Models do suggest they should not be as strong as Florence. What we don’t want to see is a more southern track. Bottom line, those storms are way, way out in the Atlantic and will allow plenty of time to react IF they show signs of coming into the Gulf. Right now, that possibility looks slim to none. Some good news regarding the MJO. It remains in the favorable (rising air) phase for the next 2 weeks. However, models are hinting a shift back to the unfavorable (sinking air) phase before the end of the month. Let’s hope so.
Locally, we continue to feel some of the wrap around moisture from Gordon. Look for more widespread showers tomorrow into the weekend. We might finally see a cool front stagger through around the 20th, but that’s still 2 weeks away. Stay tuned!
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