Gulf Goes Quiet, Atlantic Stays Active...

Back in the last week in August, I posted about the MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) going into the favorable (rising air motion) phase over our part of the world after being in the unfavorable (sinking air) phase for July & August.  Sure enough, the Tropics flipped the switch & September has seen Gordon & Florence soon to be followed by Helene & Isaac.  Gordon is now south of Memphis moving away and the Gulf has settled back down.  Out in the Atlantic, Florence is a major hurricane that computer models are now saying will not make the turn back to the north and will threaten the Carolinas & East Coast next week.  Behind that, Helene should be named shortly followed by another disturbance coming off of Africa that could become Isaac next week.  Way too soon to know if they’ll make the turn out into the north Atlantic or keep heading westward.  Bottom line, our hurricane season still has many weeks to go with the MJO in the favorable phase and no cold fronts in sight.   It is getting colder up north as Minnesota is in the 40s & 50s, but there are zero signs of an east coast trough developing that would bring that chill down to us.   You know it will come, but probably not until after Sept. 20^th.

 

Looking back at Gordon, my belief that the centerline forecast track is important to follow as it gives you an idea which way NHC’s thinking is “trending”.  IF you only had the cone to follow, you’d never be able to see the subtle shifts (10-20 miles) NHC makes on their 6 hour advisories.   No you don’t focus on the center line, but you use it as a tracking tool.  It has worked for me for over 40 years and I hope I have educated my viewers in how to use it too?  As David pointed out tonight, a shift of only 30-35 miles during the last 24 hours before landfall can be huge regarding local impacts.  Gulfport & Biloxi reported almost no rain while Pascagoula had almost 2 ½” and the east side of Mobile Bay had 6-9”.    Satellite and radar views showed us Gordon was “east side loaded” and the data confirmed that.  Not all storms will be that one sided.   Let’s face it, we were lucky Gordon did not follow the NHC’s early forecast tracks that had the center line going south of NOLA.   Someday we will not be so lucky, but for now all is quiet.  Stay tuned!