Gordon Slowly Getting Stronger...

I’m writing this as I await the 10 PM advisory.  The 7 PM update decreased the surface pressure(29.62”) and increase the surface wind speed (60 mph) while keeping the forward motion NW at 17 mph.  At that speed, Gordon will move 400+ miles in 24 hours approaching the Mississippi Coast around midnight tomorrow night.    On satellite loops he looks very disorganized & east side loaded.  It will be important which side of the centerline you are on  as the east side (right side MS/AL/FL) will get the brunt of the storm.  From what I’m seeing, NHC is likely to keep the track close to the previous track which makes Mississippi the bullseye.  IF the storm does take that path, it will mean water will be forced into Lake Pontchartrain with the northerly winds driving the water down to the South Shore.  This will mean the Mandeville Lakefront should see little flooding and the levees on the South Shore should handle the high water.  This storm will again be a real test of our rebuilt levee system and I am confident there will be no major problems.  If they held up to Isaac back in 2012, they’ll handle Gordon even if he becomes a hurricane.

 

All right, the new advisory is in and almost everything is the same.  The surface pressure is NOT falling so NHC keeps the wind speeds at 60 MPH.  David mentioned how disorganized the system looks on satellite loops and it continues moving quickly (NW at 17) diminishing the threat for high storm surge and heavy rainfall.  How about the track?  It is unchanged making landfall after dark between Gulfport & Biloxi.   That is great news for NOLA, not so great for MS/AL coasts.  Remember, this will not be a super storm.  On the Water Vapor loop, an upper low is SW of Gordon and that doesn’t appear to be helping  him in getting better organized.  I just don’t see where Gordon will explode into a strong Hurricane.  As David mentioned, he may just stay a strong tropical storm…and I agree.  Again, RIGHT NOW it remains a lopsided storm.  Stay to our east and we’ll not have any major issues.  Stay tuned!