PM Update...No Surprises

Just heard the over used phrase “we can’t let our guard down.”   And that is true since NOLA is barely still in the cone of error.  However, NHC hasn’t changed the track back to the west or to the east keeping it essentially between Gulfport & Biloxi, and that tells me they are getting more confident in their forecast.   IF that becomes reality, most of the metro area will be spared any major impacts from Gordon, the exception being some flooding rain bands.  Here’s what changed on this last advisory.  The storm surge warning (3-5’)was extended to Dauphin Island, plus the Hurricane Watch along the Gulf Coast is now a warning.  Surface pressures are slowly falling and that’s why wind speeds were upped to 50 mph.  Satellite and radar loops both show a well-defined circulation, but there are only a few T-Storms wrapping around the center.  Why Not?   NHC says shear is low & water temps very warm, so what gives?  If you look on WV (Water Vapor), there is clearly an upper low to the SW of Gordon.   An upper high (anticyclonic circulation) is over the western Gulf.   I can only assume that the nearby upper low is hindering rapid development. That should change overnight and NHC brings Gordon to minimal hurricane before landfall.  Forward speed is nearly the same (17 mph very fast) and if there is any change in track before landfall tomorrow, I would guess NHC might nudge it back farther to the west since a bigger storm has a tough time changing course (turning).  That would still keep the greatest impacts to the right of the centerline landfall (MS/AL/FL coasts).  Tuesday might see a very nice morning here before showers and winds pick up some in the PM & evening.   Being a fast mover, by midday Wednesday (or sooner), conditions will rapidly improve unless we get into some wrap around rain bands. 

 

As I mentioned earlier, the dangers are less from NOLA southwestward and greater from us eastward.  We’ll update around 10 PM but I don’t look for any major changes, especially to the track.   If you haven’t been watching FOX 8, you have missed out on some outstanding graphics that clearly show/focus where the dangers are greatest.    Just heard, Catholic Schools are closed on Tuesday.  Duh!  Stay tuned!