Special Afternoon Update...

No this is not about major Hurricane Florence that is aiming for the North Carolina coast.  It’s about a flare up of clouds over the Western Caribbean that has NHC upping their probabilities for development to 50%.   Here’s what I see on this afternoon’s daylight(visible) satellite loop.  There appears to be a mid-level rotation  just SW of the western Tip of Cuba while any surface swirl/low pressure is 200 miles farther to the SSW off the coast of Belize.  There are few clouds around that surface rotation.  On the WV (Water Vapor), there is a well-defined upper low just north of the Yucatan making for hostile environment RIGHT NOW over the Gulf.  The questions are…will the mid-level rotation off of Cuba keep moving to the NE away from the surface center?   And if that happens, will storms start to redevelop around the surface center farther to the south?  Will the Gulf upper low weaken and move away?  That’s what NHC believes and the center off of Belize is expected to cross the Yucatan and re-emerge over the southern Gulf by late Wednesday.  It’s there that the models are indicating some development (depression/tropical storm) could happen.  Again, RIGHT NOW it would have minimal impacts for us IF it heads towards the lower Texas coast on Friday & Saturday.   Actually the circulation from Florence might block any movement towards the northern Gulf and that would be good for us.   With all the focus on Florence (rightly so), I  just didn’t want anyone to be surprised if Tropical Storm Joyce develops over the southern Gulf.  Pay attention time for many.  Next update tonight.  Stay tuned!