Bloggers Going Nuts As Florence Aims for the Carolinas...

Let me begin by saying none of the models show any Gulf threat this week even though NHC says there is a 30% chance for development in the western Gulf in days 3-5.  A burst of T-Storms formed today over the western Caribbean as a well-defined upper low is just north of the Yucatan.  High SW wind shear is very obvious on Satellite loops so any development will be very limited in the short term.   I’d rather not focused on something that isn’t there yet, but instead on what is and that is Hurricane Florence.  Computer models are all pretty much focused on a Carolina landfall with the cone of error extending from Savannah all the way up to Norfolk.   Unlike Gordon, this will be a very symmetrical storm with impacts not confined to just one side of the track.  Two things that are scary in the model projections tonight.   1) Florence is expected to rapidly strengthen to a Cat. 4 and maintain that level until nearing landfall.  2) the storm is expected to slow down and stall (ala Harvey last year) with the potential of bringing 20,30,40+ inches of rain on areas that are already waterlogged.    Expect to see some wild videos of wind at landfall followed by extreme flooding for days afterward.  If you have plans for a visit to the Carolinas & Virginia for later this week, you need to seriously change plans.   This will likely end up a very deadly hurricane despite days of warnings.  It will not ever be our problem.   But what about Isaac?  Isaac is now a hurricane and could reach a Cat. 2 intensity as it approaches the Windward  islands later this week.  Model guidance WEAKENS  Isaac as it reaches the central Caribbean and none of the models bring it our way.   Hurricane Helene is projected to recurve out into the central Atlantic and only affect shipping.  So on this anniversary ( 53^rd) of hurricane Betsy, we have zero tropical threats in the northern Gulf this week.

 

We are watching a slow moving frontal boundary that will wash out/dissipate across south Louisiana over the next 48 hours.  With the boundary in our neighborhood, we should again find scattered storms around for most of this week.  These are slow movers dropping 1-2” in less than an hour while nearby areas receive very little.  There are signs that a stronger front will finally arrive during the 3^rd week of September bringing in mainly drier air.  This week will continue the active phase of the MJO, but signs point to that going into the quiet phase after the 20^th.  Let’s hope so.  This week, all eyes are on the Carolinas as we know what is coming their way.  Stay tuned!