As we near the end of April, we all know what's coming in about 2-3 weeks. The talk will be...when will we hit our first 90+ degree day? Today was a WOW !!! feeling type of day with plenty of sunshine, warm, but not hot temperatures and low humidity. Expect 2-3 more days like this before the muggies return by Tuesday. Highs will gradually increase to the mid 80s for next week and with the added humidity, it'll feel almost hot. But not this weekend so don't stay inside when you can still go outside and not melt.
Some final thoughts on this year's Hurricane Conference...The forecast track errors continue to decrease but so too the intensity errors. However, NHC says when you see the forecast track with intensity predictions, ALWAYS prepare for one category stronger. One of the senior hurricane specialists stated..."it is not wise to show the single track forecast of the Euro or GFS models since they do not show the EMSEMBLE UNCERTAINTIES." What most folks don't know is that the European model is not just a single run but actually 50 different runs while the American model (GFS) has about 25 runs. The "come of error" NHC uses could just as easily be called the "cone of uncertainty". Something to think about when you see local broadcasters showing you the different models. Another thing I didn't know is the storm surge has it's own model and is not tied to the track and intensity models. Hurricane season is only 5 weeks away. As we get closer, I'll be talking about some of the things you'll need to do to keep your family safe. Stay tuned!
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