Here We Go Again...

After spending my day down at the National Hurricane Conference, I returned home to write my blog only to discover SPC has once again placed us in a severe risk area (level 2) for Thursday.   Since the last 2 episodes turned out to be non-events here (severe weather did strike farther to our north), I am more cautious to jump on the bandwagon and warn about a severe outbreak on Thursday.  We do have another upper disturbance traveling at a lower(farther south) latitude that could trigger showers & T-Storms here, but that is still nearly 2 days away.    From what I'm seeing is the models appear to weaken the upper energy as it travels across us so I am not confident any storms might turn severe.   Widespread showers with rumbles of thunder appear very likely on Thursday, but let's not get overly anxious just yet.  We still have another day to watch and see if a severe threat develops.   Since this disturbance will be a fast mover, the outlook for Friday through Sunday continues to be terrific with plenty of sunshine and warm temps (80-85) along with lower humidity.

Here are a couple of nuggets gleaned from today's hurricane conference.   NHC has designated May 5-11 as Hurricane Preparedness Week with each day focusing on a different aspect (insurance, evacuation plan,  home survival items etc) for getting your family ready.  On May 8-9th, NHC will host special school webinars designed to teach younger kids on hurricane safety.   The thought here is you can reach their parents through their children.   If you have a school age child, check with their science teachers to encourage them(the teachers) to register for this free webinar.  Finally, Dr. Klotzbach of Colorado State University gave his 2019 season prediction indicating a near normal to slightly below normal number of storms this summer.   As I mentioned in a previous blog, those numbers are pretty useless as we must prepare every year for a hurricane.   There is limited skill on forecasting location so just giving the number of storms that might form doesn't tell you much.     I did sit in on a luncheon provided by Zurich (the PGA Golf Classic sponsor) that looked back on Hurricane Florence from last year.    Lots can be learned by looking back on the mistakes made in previous storms.  I'll have more on that tomorrow.   Stay tuned!