Some Strong Storms Possible Thursday...

Almost like clockwork, another upper disturbance is pushing across Texas tonight and should bring us a couple of rounds of showers & T-Storms on Thursday.  SPC still has us in a level 2 (slight) risk area, but this upper system doesn't look as robust as last week's.   One part of the disturbance is triggering T-Storms in east Texas that will move into SE LA/MS after daybreak on Thursday.   Hanging back over the Rio Grande is the back edge of the upper trough and models are quickly bringing that by us before midnight tomorrow.   If this disturbance is like the last 2, most of the severe threat will be to our north and east, but we could see a good soaking (1-2") with several rounds of heavy downpours.   The first round moves through between 7-10 AM with the second later (4-7PM) in the day.   All signs show the weekend (Fri-Sun) to be sunny, dry & warm, near perfect for the Jazz Fest & Zurich Golf Classic.   Thursday is the only day with weather issues.

More nuggets from the National Hurricane Conference...more people die from inland flooding(50%) than from wind (8%).  Since 2016, 83% of deaths were water related, but only 4% of that 83% were due to storm surge.  16 out of 17 recent deaths were due to drowning with people in vehicles.   Seems many still don't get "turn around, don't drown".   Only 30% of people in high risk (for flooding) areas have flood insurance.  1" of water in your home can cause $25,000+ worth of damage.  Buying inexpensive (generally less than $100/mo) national flood insurance provides a greater ROI (return on investment) than almost anything other investment.    During recent hurricanes, many people received $100-150K on a flood policy costing less than $500.  Why then don't people buy it?  They have an incorrect PERCEPTION OF RISK towards where they live..."we've been through bad hurricanes before...the hurricane wasn't that bad...or...it's never happened before."  If you live in south Louisiana or Mississippi, you MUST have flood insurance.  Our levees are "risk reduction" NOT "Risk elimination".   There are only 2 types of levees, 1) those that HAVE FAILED and 2) those that WILL FAIL.  Finally, the buzz word this year is RESILIENCE or the ability to recover quickly after a disaster.  Tomorrow I'll get into why Louisiana's weak building codes doom us for great tragedy when a storm like Michael (Cat. 5 160+ mph winds) eventually hits.  Stay tuned!