Thursday, July 11, 2019

Barry getting Stronger, Barely Moving...

Go outside tonight and the brisk breeze tells you something must be going on in the Gulf.  I'm seeing confusing signals from surface pressures steady or rising, winds still ENE and satellite IR (infrared ) loop showing no storms at all around the center.  Without the Hurricane Hunters, we would not know Barry is getting stronger.  His forward motion remains West at only 3 mph and this is a totally lopsided storm.   All of the bad weather is to the left (south) of his forward motion.  Sooner or later, T-Storms have got to start to build around the east side, but that is not happening yet.  David showed the huge differences between the Euro and GFS (American) models with the Euro keeping the heaviest rains west of NOLA with the GFS bringing the heaviest right over us.   My gut tells me to go with the Euro based on what I'm seeing on satellite and radar loops, but we won't know for sure until the system becomes better defined.  Friday will be crucial.  Keep moving west before the turn to the north!  I'm a big believer in following the NHC placement of the centerline track.  We all know impacts occur far away from that centerline, however, you can get a feeling which way the storm is moving by following the trend of the track.  NHC's latest update has a subtle shift (15-20 miles) to the left of their previous track.  I hope that trend continues because that would support the Euro's solution of keeping the heaviest rains to our west.   I'll get up tomorrow looking to see if Barry's center is still exposed, or if storms have started to form around it.   Winds already are gusting to 30+ at many locations so expect Friday to be a rock & roll type of day.  National news networks are having a field day overhyping what so far is a Tropical Storm.  Maybe they know more than I do?  Stay tuned!

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