Wow, the hype is on both locally & nationally. The good thing about hurricane forecast impacts is we can see within days if they were correct or not. They are verifiable, unlike the global warming predictions that go out 40-50-100+ years. No one will be here to know if they were right...but they make for good headlines. Here's what we know. There is not a lot of change as Barry creeps slowly to the west. that direction is good and I hope it continues as the farther west he goes before making the turn to the north is better for us. An old rule I used is to watch to make sure the system reached 90 degrees west longitude (directly south of NOLA) before making the turn. Daylight satellite loops continue to show several vortices (swirls) rotating around a broad center which is exposed on the north side. The typical storm has the stronger/wetter side to the east of the center. This system, RIGHT NOW, is moisture loaded on the south side. If it can get to 92 or 93 degrees west before making the turn, perhaps when all those storms begin to wrap around the center, the brunt of the heaviest rainfall will be well to our west. Model rainfall guidance doesn't say that and indicates NOLA could get 10-15+" of rain. Again, we will see if the models get it right. As long as we don't get under one of the bands of storms (training) rotating around Barry, our pumps should be OK The crest on the Mississippi River at the Carrollton gauge was LOWERED since the storm hasn't strengthen yet. The Army Corps is confident the River levees will not be over-topped. Let's watch those coordinates issued at 7 & 10 PM. See if that west track continues. The northerly shear & dry air over the north side of Barry will not last forever. I have the usual supplies + food and water. Are you ready too? Stay tuned!
Two weeks from today begins the International Grand Isle Tarpon Rodeo. I'll have more about that after Barry is gone.
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