Tuesday, July 30, 2019

Hawaii to get Hammered?

As we approach our "prime time" for tropical threats, so too for the Hawaiian Islands.  Major Hurricane Erick (Cat. 3) is predicted to stay just south of the Big Island while soon to be Hurricane Flossie is projected to take a more direct impact.   I'm sure the network news programs will be all over this (overhype?) for the next week.

Closer to home, what I'm seeing is an upper trough over the east coast that extends down into the Gulf.  This makes for a "hostile environment" for any tropical development.  Models are keeping the large upper high over the Rockies for the next 10-14 days with the east coast trough staying in place.  That should mean good news for us as any system coming in from the Atlantic will be steered/turned to the east of us and not ever be our problem.  We have 2 systems right now that are struggling to develop into more than just a tropical wave, or clusters of disorganized storms.  One is crossing Puerto Rico while the other is way off in the eastern Atlantic.  So unless something forms in the Gulf (not likely) in the next 10-14 days, the first part of August should be quiet aside from our daily summer T-Storms.  We might even see another "cool" front work its way down to us with this upper NW flow in place?  

Since the heavy rains have stopped falling up north, the Ohio & Mississippi are falling quickly.  We will see the Carrollton gauge drop under 14 feet this week and under 12 feet by mid August.  When September arrives, it should be under 10 feet.  Great news in case we get another tropical threat.  Stay tuned!

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