Chantal Will Have To Wait...

The 3rd named storm of this season is unlikely until we get well into August.  NHC LOWERED their probabilities on Invest 95L, the tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean Sea.  None of the models develop it since it is heading into higher wind shear as it moves over the land areas of Puerto Rico & Hispaniola.   Maybe as it nears south Florida by Friday might it have an opportunity to show some organization, but that appears unlikely as NHC only gives it a 10% chance.  Coming off of Africa is a well defined circulation that several models develop once it gets north of Puerto Rico, but that is over a week away. It's currently fighting Saharan dust and NHC hasn't started to even mention it in their outlook.  Closer to home, we have an upper low over the Gulf and that should mean nothing will form that we need to worry about.  Another front will sag down into the Gulf South for Tuesday & Wednesday increasing our rain chances so keep the rain gear handy.

While I was down on Grand Isle, the Corps of Engineers finally closed all the bays in the Spillway and that should allow the healing process to begin for all the nearby lakes & sounds that have suffered so much loss this Summer.  The Carrollton gauge is rapidly falling and should be below 11 feet by mid August.  With big daily falls (1-2') in the Ohio River, we could see our river stage below 10 feet for the heart (Aug.15-Sept. 30) of hurricane season, and that would be huge.. Stay tuned!

A final thought on a very successful 2019 Grand Isle Tarpon Rodeo...why was no Tarpon brought in to the weigh station? (One was caught, but then released)  Fishing guide Pat Bellanger said last week's strong cold front really changed/altered the fishing patterns.   In addition, while driving back over the Mississippi River in Destrehan, I noticed how fast the current still is despite the river falling nearly 2 feet.  There has been a tremendous volume of fresh water flowing out the mouth of the Mississippi.  Could that have displaced the Tarpon from their usual late July location (West Delta block)?   One thing I did notice was the water temperatures were not real warm.  Perhaps it was the after effects from Barry 2 weeks prior?  Whatever, zero tarpon brought to the weigh station was a first for me.  If you fish a lot, give me your ideas.   Global Warming?   Not again!