NHC didn't wait for a Recon report and started issuing advisories on "Potential Tropical Storm # 2 at 10 AM. At least now we have a centerline track to follow during future model runs to help us see which way it's trending. Right now, NHC's best centerline guess is landfall between Lafayette & Lake Charles late Friday into Saturday as a Cat. 1 Hurricane.
We really would like that track to shift farther to the west taking the main impacts away from us. Satellite and radar loops continue to show a broad circulation over the eastern Gulf, but I can't pinpoint a center. I'm hoping Recon finds the center farther to the south later today and new model runs take the storm more towards Texas. Buoy reports over the eastern Gulf are not showing any high winds and waves telling me this development process will be slow. The forecasting problem involves disagreement between the 2 main models. The Euro takes the center of the Storm over Lake Charles while the GFS (American) model has the center coming inland near Morgan City. That is a huge difference and if the GFS proves correct, we could have some real flooding issues. The Corps now projects a higher Mississippi River rise cresting at 20'. Levees protect up to 20-25' so that's getting close. Once this system is passed us, the Mississippi should begin falling as farther north of Memphis, the falls are 1-2'/day. I will feel more confident in the future track once the Hurricane Hunters locate a closed surface low this afternoon. Hopefully that will confirm a farther west movement so we won't have any major impacts. Stay Tuned!
Wow, what a morning on the South Shore! What appeared to be a single cluster of T-Storms developing over Lake Pontchartrain turned into a train of storms developing over a "burst point" just off the South Shore Lakefront. I had 3.22" at my house, but much of Orleans Parish received 6-8"+. No wonder the streets flooded!
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