We Have a Circulation...

A recon aircraft (Hurricane Hunter) will be out flying shortly to confirm that there is a closed low level circulation over the eastern Gulf.  Here's what I'm seeing this morning.  On both satellite and radar loops, there is a well defined rotation over the eastern Gulf far south of where NHC and models were indicating last night.  Let's see if recon confirms that?  The center appears to be west of Tampa & south of Panama City.  If that is indeed the initialization point, it will be interesting to see the new model runs.  The Euro has shifted back towards the Texas/Louisiana border but that was based on guessing where a center might be.  We should know way more later this afternoon.   This morning's heavy rains are associated with the outer fringes of this broad circulation and hopefully that will pull away leaving us with a drier afternoon?   I'll have a mid day update around noon.  Stay tuned!