No Barry Yet...

Several things to talk about tonight.  NHC has nudged the centerline track 30 miles closer to us putting most of SE LA. back into the cone of error.  However, they mentioned in their discussion that..."confidence in the details of the forecast is not high"  Humm. Translation, don't totally buy into the models shifting the storm closer to us.  If this trend continues on Thursday, then we have to prepare for greater impacts for Friday & Saturday.  David showed the VIPIR model taking this system way farther to the west towards Houston.  That still could happen.  Satellite loops tonight show all T-Storms around the center are confined to the southern side as there appears to be a northerly shear over  Potential TC # 2.  Movement continues to the SW and that is good for the longer it stays on that path, the less likely we'll get the brunt of this storm.   Also, NHC increased the forward speed from 8 to 9 mph.  We want a faster moving storm since that usually means less heavy rainfall.   The models predict a Cat. one hurricane at landfall.  At this year's Hurricane Conference, it was pointed out to ALWAYS prepare for a category higher than predicted.   Unless we see rapid intensification and a slower forward motion, I don't see that happening.  I gassed the car up today and have enough frozen stuff and water to get me through the weekend in case this becomes our worst case scenario.  Right now, I don't expect that to happen.   Bravo VIPIR.  Hope you prove correct!  Stay tuned!