No Barry, No Confidence...

There have been several changes overnight, but the lack of confidence in the Forecast Track from NHC remains according to their discussion,  One of the major changes is the center of this low has moved very little overnight.  NHC now says forward motion is west at 5 mph (last night it was 8 mph).  That SOMETIMES means there could be a change in direction coming.  NHC nudged their centerline track another 30 miles closer to us and several models are now bringing the center EAST of the mouth of the River.  It appears the main threat from whatever forms will be the heavy rainfall (12-18+") here late Friday into Saturday.  Because a well defined center hasn't formed yet, models are struggling with solutions.  RIGHT NOW, the new NHC track puts all of SE LA. into a flooding heavy rain threat.  Evacuations outside the levee protection (risk reduction) system should take place today and early on Friday.  For the rest of us, we need to be ready to stay home Friday night and all day Saturday, perhaps even into Sunday if the slow movement continues.   One thing is certain.  This low hasn't followed the predicted path so far.  It keeps changing and, until it gets stronger, expect more changes.   The daylight satellite loop shows no storms around an apparent center(exposed) that is struggling to develop due to northerly shear.  Could that shear continue?  NHC doesn't think so.  Who knows!  Could it end up going to our east and put us on the weaker side?  Could it go farther to the west keeping the heaviest rains away?   So many questions. So few answers.  Next update around noon. Stay tuned!