As we leave July and head into August & September, the tropical Atlantic (MDR Main Development Region) typically becomes more active with waves/disturbances moving off the West African coast every 3-4 days. Most (85%) don't develop but some do turning into tropical storms or hurricanes. The first wave moved over Puerto Rico yesterday and remains an open wave that NHC is giving a 10% (Unlikely) chance for development north of the Bahamas, The second is now in the central Atlantic and many models are making it a tropical storm ( 60% Chantal) by this weekend. All recurve whatever forms east of the U.S. which would keep it out of the Gulf. Yet a third wave is emerging off of Africa as this pattern is likely to continue for the next 6-8+ weeks. Closer to home, there is a well defined upper low over the central Gulf south of BIX (Biloxi). T-Storms are over the western Gulf and over the eastern Gulf but none are around the low itself. Sometimes these upper features can work their way down to the surface, but no model indicates that happening. What the models do indicate is the current upper high centered over the southern Rockies with the east coast trough dipping into the Gulf will last through this weekend. All that means is we'll see our daily rain chances continue typical of August with perhaps a decrease next week IF the upper high shifts more our way.
The Mississippi River continues falling and should be below 14 feet by tomorrow and under 13 feet by this weekend at the Carrollton gauge. If no more heavy widespread rains fall up north, the river should be under 10 feet by early September. No matter, Old Man River will keep on rolling. Stay tuned!
No comments:
Post a Comment