As most of you know, NHC is following two disturbances today. The first wave heading towards south Florida is given a low (10%) chance for development as it skirts the Florida east coast and heads northward off the Carolinas. It's highly unlikely that system will become our next named storm. The next disturbance is a large mid level swirl over the central Atlantic that has very few T-Storms around it. However, NHC has upper the chances for development from yesterday's 40% to 70%. Translation...based on computer models, NHC feels that will become our next named storm (Chantal) on Saturday as it skirts just north of Puerto Rico, All models curve it AWAY from the U.S. A third swirl has moved off of Africa, but models are not developing it at all. Could be too much Saharan dust coupled with an unfavorable phase (sinking air) of the MJO. All in all, for us (the Gulf) the first 2 weeks of August look quiet, and that is good.
Locally, the upper high (heat wave) remains centered over the southern Rockies with an east coast trough all the way down into the central Gulf. Models keep that pattern in place through the weekend before shifting the ridge eastward later next week. IF that happens, get ready for a real heat wave (95-100) here as we dry out and heat up. But that is next week. For the next several days that upper low (cold pool) over the Gulf should keep our daily storms going. The good news is October is only 2 months away!
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