A Real Test of 2 Models...

Recall yesterday's morning's post when I talked about the Centerline track of NHC talking Dorian over the extreme west edge of Puerto Rico and the eastern edge of the Dominican Republic.  Well, their track was not close as Dorian's real track took him EAST of Puerto Rico sparing the Island of the heaviest rains & winds.  The Virgin Islands were not so lucky as they received wind gusts to 90+ mph.  The track error was over 100 miles at 48 hours, far greater than normal (50-60).  One thing that hasn't changed in 2 days is the landfall along Florida's east coast.  In the recent past, the Euro model has been the more accurate model, far better than the old GFS (American).  However, this year we have a new GFS model that is SUPPOSED to be better.   We better hope so because the Euro model is bringing Dorian way farther to the south and then into the NE Gulf with landfall near Destin next Wednesday.  Just watching David and he showed the newest GFS model run that mirrors the Euro and is much farther south of its previous run.  Previously the GFS took Dorian closer to Jacksonville and never reaching the NE Gulf.  With this new info NHC shifted their centerline track from north of Orlando to south of Orlando.   Let's see if that disturbing trend continues on their next update tonight at 10 PM.  Bottom line, the northern Gulf is not fully out of danger from Dorian as the Hurricane of 1947 & Hurricane Andrew (1992)  took tracks over southern Florida and ended up impacting New Orleans.   If you have plans for the Gulf beaches this Labor Day weekend you should not cancel, but keep up with the latest daily updates.   IF the Euro proves correct, you'll have plenty of time to flee back to NOLA.  Here's my take...there is a history of storms that come across or near Puerto Rico and then bend/turn back to the west.  Most of them became major (at. 3+) Hurricanes and NHC is predicting just that.  What we would like to see is a track on the north side of the cone.  What we don't want is the current trend of shifting the centerline farther and farther to the south.  That would increase the chances that Dorian would impact the northern Gulf, including us.   The pay attention day will come on Saturday as, by then, the computer models will be locked into tracking a major storm, which NHC is extremely good at recently.  For now we watch and track.

Locally, a weak front will bring us much drier air for Thursday, Friday & Saturday before we're back in the muggies and showers by Sunday  IF Dorian stays to our east, we could dry out again for next week.  Stay tuned!