Dorian Likely, but not in Gulf...

NHC has increased the probabilities for development along Florida's east coast from 20% to 50% in 5 days.  Visible satellite loops had a weak swirl between Miami & Nassau this afternoon and that is confirmed on tonight's radar loop.   This weak low will be along the east coast of Florida the next 2 days with only slow development.  Once it clears land and gets over the warm Gulf Stream Saturday or Sunday, look for it to become better organized.  Fortunately, we'll see no impacts from that.  However, the local NWS office is voicing concern over the growing mass of clouds and storms over the west central Gulf.   No model develops this system and it remains very disorganized tonight.   It appears there is a mid to upper level spin ESE of Brownsville with the general motion of the whole disturbance lifting to the north.   You can expect the next 2-3 days will see above normal clouds and showers with the possibility of some flooding as rain totals could easily reach 2-4"+.   So far, pressures are not falling and cloud tops are warming, all signs that development is not happening.   It's grabbing our attention since it's so close to home.   Hopefully Friday will not be too bad as we attend a memorial service for our dear friend Nancy Parker.  You can watch it live on FOX 8 beginning at 10 AM.  

Models continue to show a front coming for late next week.  Don't run for the sweaters yet, but lower humidity would be nice.  Stay tuned!