Although NHC is not talking about it yet, our local NWS office is saying the cluster of growing T-Storms in the western Gulf bears watching. This feature is mainly a mid to upper level low that is interacting with a tropical wave. NHC has given the eastern part of the wave over the Bahamas a slight (20%) chance for development during the next 5 days, but that won't be our problem since that system stays east of Florida. On the other hand, the surge of moisture down in the Gulf is projected to keep moving to the north and that means, even if there is no surface development (depression or Trop. Storm), all of the northern Gulf coast from Houston to Mobile is in for a good soaking this weekend. These will be tropical downpours (very efficient rainmakers) that will have hourly rainfall rates of 2-3"+/hour. Today looks much drier than yesterday as showers are taking longer to develop. Thursday should see increased storms, especially by late PM and Friday through Sunday look stormy at times. My best guess is general rainfall totals of 2-4" will be common, but some spots could get 5-8". These slow moving weak systems are the ones that computer models have difficulty in handling. Even though the next named storm (Dorian) is likely to form off the Carolina coast next week, our focus should be on the Gulf. Let's see if NHC starts talking about it on their 2 PM update?
Models continue to show an early Fall preview cold front coming for Labor Day Weekend. Stay tuned!
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