Hurricane Dorian is behaving as expected and about the only changes from yesterday are 1) the centerline track is farther southward (now near Jupiter) and 2) days 4 & 5 positions have shifted to north of Orlando. If you didn't follow the centerline track you wouldn't know that since the error cone still covers all of Florida from Key West to Georgia. Unless there is a radical model shift, I expect there will only be minor tweaks made to future NHC tracks. The real worry remains for the east coast of Florida for winds and surge with much of the state under the potential for massive heavy rainfall due to Dorian slowing down. Note the forward speed has decreased from 13 to 10 mph and further slowing is expected. The Panhandle looks to be the only part of the state that should avoid any major impacts. Aside from Dorian's jog east of Puerto Rico, he has not thrown us any curves. As mentioned in previous posts, there is still high UNCERTAINTY beyond 3 days. Could Dorian reach the coast and turn to the SW? Could he turn to the north BEFORE reaching the coast? Could he reach the coast and keep going to the west? The answer to those questions is sure, but models are not showing that right now. Again, watch the forward speed and the center line track that has shifted from near Melbourne yesterday to near Jupiter today. Will that southward trend continue? Watch the surface pressure (currently 970 mb) since, if it keeps lowering that means wind speeds must increase. Dorian remains a Florida storm with no impacts for Louisiana or Mississippi right now. Will update again if there are any major changes. Enjoy your Holiday weekend and stay tuned!
Hurricane Dorian is behaving as expected and about the only changes from yesterday are 1) the centerline track is farther southward (now near Jupiter) and 2) days 4 & 5 positions have shifted to north of Orlando. If you didn't follow the centerline track you wouldn't know that since the error cone still covers all of Florida from Key West to Georgia. Unless there is a radical model shift, I expect there will only be minor tweaks made to future NHC tracks. The real worry remains for the east coast of Florida for winds and surge with much of the state under the potential for massive heavy rainfall due to Dorian slowing down. Note the forward speed has decreased from 13 to 10 mph and further slowing is expected. The Panhandle looks to be the only part of the state that should avoid any major impacts. Aside from Dorian's jog east of Puerto Rico, he has not thrown us any curves. As mentioned in previous posts, there is still high UNCERTAINTY beyond 3 days. Could Dorian reach the coast and turn to the SW? Could he turn to the north BEFORE reaching the coast? Could he reach the coast and keep going to the west? The answer to those questions is sure, but models are not showing that right now. Again, watch the forward speed and the center line track that has shifted from near Melbourne yesterday to near Jupiter today. Will that southward trend continue? Watch the surface pressure (currently 970 mb) since, if it keeps lowering that means wind speeds must increase. Dorian remains a Florida storm with no impacts for Louisiana or Mississippi right now. Will update again if there are any major changes. Enjoy your Holiday weekend and stay tuned!
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